@Article{SerrãoSFXSAPS:2023:FuImHy,
               author = "Serr{\~a}o, Edivaldo Afonso de Oliveira and Silva, Madson Tavares 
                         and Ferreira, Thomas Rocha and Xavier, Ana Carolina Freitas and 
                         Santos, Cleber Assis dos and Ataide, Lorena Concei{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         Paiva de and Pontes, Paulo Rogenes Monteiro and Silva, Vicente de 
                         Paulo Rodrigues da",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Campina Grande (UFCG)} and {Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico Vale (ITV)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto 
                         Tecnol{\'o}gico Vale (ITV)} and {Universidade Federal de Campina 
                         Grande (UFCG)}",
                title = "Climate and land use change: future impacts on hydropower and 
                         revenue for the Amazon",
              journal = "Journal of Cleaner Production",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "385",
                pages = "e135700",
                month = "Jan.",
             keywords = "Climate-land-energy-water nexus, Economics and environment, 
                         Hydrological modeling.",
             abstract = "Land use and climate change are expected to significantly alter 
                         hydrology and consequently electricity production in countries 
                         extremely dependent on their water resources, such as Brazil. 
                         Therefore, we used the large-scale hydrological model Soil and 
                         Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which we integrated with climate 
                         change and land use scenarios for the Tocantins-Araguaia Watershed 
                         (TAW) with a focus on energy production at the Tucuru{\'{\i}} 
                         Hydroelectric Plant (THP) in the southeastern Amazon. We used 
                         daily precipitation and temperature data from two General 
                         Circulation Models (GCM), HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 with moderate 
                         (+4.5 W/m2 in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels) and 
                         severe (+8.5 W/m2) radiative forcing from carbon dioxide emissions 
                         in the atmosphere (Representative Concentration Pathways). For the 
                         land use and land cover change (LULCC) scenario, we replaced 
                         forest areas only with pasture, then with agriculture, then with 
                         reforestation vegetation, and finally with regenerated forest. 
                         Each LULCC period was coupled with the highest impact climate 
                         scenario found for TAW (MIROC5-RCP 8.5); thus, we investigated 
                         five scenarios and their impacts on hydropower production and 
                         revenue in THP. Our results highlight that the TAW will face a 
                         large water reduction by the end of the century, which in all 
                         scenarios will strongly impact the basin's energy production and 
                         hydro revenue. Reductions of up to 74% in annual flow and 63% in 
                         electricity generation are expected for the most pessimistic 
                         scenario (L8.5), triggering a 135% deficit per year in THP 
                         revenue. Although some land use change scenarios partially 
                         minimize the climate-driven flow decrease trend in the period of 
                         higher precipitation, there is still a dramatic reduction in flow 
                         during the dry season, thus exacerbating seasonal and inter-annual 
                         variability.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135700",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135700",
                 issn = "0959-6526",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1-s2.0-S095965262205274X-main.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}